El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The most recent report issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained near average throughout May, with anomalies ranging from -0.1°C to +0.4°C. Overall, the ocean-atmosphere system exhibited conditions typical of a neutral phase.

Therefore, the ENSO warning system is currently inactive, and a neutral condition is favored for the June–July–August quarter with an 82% probability. This outlook is expected to persist through September–November, with an increased probability of a La Niña event occurring toward the end of this year, as shown in Figure 2.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
According to the latest report issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the La Niña advisory has ended. During April, sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
were near average, and the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole exhibited conditions typical of a neutral phase.
Therefore, for the coming months, the ENSO alert system is inactive, and a neutral condition is favored, with an 89% probability for the May-June-July quarter. This outlook may persist through August-October with a probability close to
50%.

Currently, La Niña conditions are
weakening, and a transition to neutral conditions is expected in the coming months. Neutral ENSO conditions are forecast to persist through June–July–August, with a 62% probability.
During February, ocean temperatures in the
equatorial Pacific have risen, although there was warming off the coast of South America. However, this warming is superficial and does not indicate a return to El Niño. Winds and atmospheric conditions continue to reflect La Niña conditions, but with a trend toward neutrality.

The information generated has been compiled in this Agroclimatic Bulletin.

According to the 1991–2020 climate reference period, March is characterized by minimal rainfall in the northern part of the department (between 0 mm and 60 mm), followed by accumulations of 60 mm to 120 mm in Montes de María, Barranco de Loba, northern Mojana, and central Magdalena. The highest rainfall totals occur in the south, ranging from 120 mm to 200 mm. The weather forecast indicates significant increases in the northwest and central parts of the department and moderate increases for the rest of the department, with the exception of eastern Montes de María, where slight increases are expected. It is recommended to be mindful of the seasonal winds.

The information generated has been compiled in this Agroclimatic Bulletin.

The Bolívar Agroclimatic Technical Committee (MTA) is a forum for dialogue and analysis among local, national, and regional stakeholders. It seeks to understand potential climate patterns based on scientific data and
empirical knowledge, and to develop recommendations for mitigating the risks associated with climate variability in the agricultural sector.

At the most recent meeting held on January 21 (via video conference), the climate outlook for the January–February–March quarter in Bolívar was presented. Based on this information, potential impacts and recommendations for the agricultural sector were discussed. The information generated has been compiled in this Agroclimatic Bulletin.